A-Public Investment Efficiency and Regional Productivity in Poland. Panel Evidence from 2010–2023
Abstract
Abstract: This manuscript examines whether the efficiency of public investment is associated with regional productivity growth in Poland over 2010–2023. Public capital spending is widely viewed as a driver of development, yet the productivity effects depend on project appraisal, selection, implementation capacity, and the degree to which public projects crowd in complementary private investment. The study is designed as a balanced regional panel analysis at the NUTS-2 (voivodeship) level. It combines (i) regional productivity outcomes (labor productivity and total factor productivity proxies), (ii) public investment inputs (capital expenditure and infrastructure-oriented spending proxies), and (iii) investment-efficiency indicators proxied by implementation and absorption measures, including EU-funded investment execution where appropriate. A fixed-effects framework is specified to control for time-invariant regional characteristics, with dynamic panel extensions included to address persistence in productivity outcomes. Robustness checks are planned across alternative productivity measures, lag structures, and heterogeneity tests by region size and structural-change intensity. The manuscript reports the full empirical strategy, variable definitions, and replication workflow; numerical results and effect sizes are to be inserted once the regional dataset is finalized and the estimation outputs are produced.
How to Cite
References
- Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297.
- Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), 177–200.
- Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data (3rd ed.). Wiley.
- Becker, S. O., Egger, P. H., & von Ehrlich, M. (2010). Going NUTS: The effect of EU Structural Funds on regional performance. Journal of Public Economics, 94(9–10), 578–590.
- Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143.
- Bom, P. R. D., & Ligthart, J. E. (2014). What have we learned from three decades of research on the productivity of public capital? Journal of Economic Surveys, 28(5), 889–916.
- Crescenzi, R., & Giua, M. (2019). One or many Cohesion Policies of the European Union? On the differential economic impacts of Cohesion Policy across Member States. Regional Studies.
- Dabla-Norris, E., Brumby, J., Kyobe, A., Mills, Z., & Papageorgiou, C. (2011). Investing in public investment: An index of public investment efficiency (IMF Working Paper WP/11/37). International Monetary Fund.
- European Commission. (2022, June 30). EU Cohesion Policy: Commission adopts €76.5 billion Partnership Agreement with Poland for 2021–2027 (Press release IP/22/4223). European Commission
- International Monetary Fund. (2022). Poland: Technical Assistance Report—Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) (IMF Country Report No. 22/231). infrastructuregovern.imf.org+1
- Gramlich, E. M. (1994). Infrastructure investment: A review essay. Journal of Economic Literature, 32(3), 1176–1196.
- Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica, 49(6), 1417–1426.
- OECD. (2023). OECD Regional Outlook 2023: Country profile—Poland (regional inequality trends). oecd-cfe-eds.github.io
- Rajaram, A., Le, T. M., Kaiser, K., Kim, J.-H., & Frank, J. (Eds.). (2014). The power of public investment management: Transforming resources into assets for growth. World Bank.
- Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (2nd ed.). MIT Press.
- World Bank. (2023). Fiscal decentralization and local public investment processes in Poland (policy/report document). World Bank
- Rexhepi, B. R., Rexhepii, F. G., Xhaferi, B., Xhaferi, S., & Berisha, B. I. (2024). Financial Accounting Management: A Case of Ege Furniture in Kosovo. Quality – Access to Success. https://doi.org/10.47750/QAS/25.200.09
- Rexhepi, B. R., Ymeri, P., & Halilaj, E. (2024). The role of management in microfinance institutions in Kosovo: Case study Dukagjini Region. Quality – Access to Success. https://doi.org/10.47750/qas/25.202.22
- Rexhepi, B. R., Mustafa, L., Sadiku, M. K., Berisha, B. I., Ahmeti, S. U., & Rexhepi, O. R. (2024). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of development of construction companies and the primary housing market: Assessment of the damage caused, current state, forecasts. Architecture Image Studies, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.48619/ais.v5i2.988
- Fernald, J. G. (1999). Roads to prosperity? Assessing the link between public capital and productivity. American Economic Review, 89(3), 619–638.
- Leduc, S., & Wilson, D. J. (2013). Roads to prosperity or bridges to nowhere? Theory and evidence on the impact of public infrastructure investment. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 27(1), 89–142.
- Pritchett, L. (2000). The tyranny of concepts: CUDIE is not capital. Journal of Economic Growth, 5, 361–384.
- Solow, R. M. (1957). Technical change and the aggregate production function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(3), 312–320.
- OECD. (2025). OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2025.
- European Commission. (n.d.). Poland’s recovery and resilience plan (RRF country page). European Commission